Our work

There is consensus from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) that, in order to maintain the 1.5 degree pathway set out in the Paris Agreement, a tripling of renewables capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030 is required. According to the IEA, it is the single most important driver to keep 1.5C within reach. 90% of the renewable capacity growth would be from solar and wind, with wind capacity rising threefold from 2022 to 2030, and solar capacity fivefold. Put simply, this goal would be out of reach absent China’s massive green industrialisation of the last decade, the unprecedented acceleration of which underpins the financial viability of, and the market conditions to make possible, the global renewables revolution we need to see by 2030 if we are to avert the worsening climate crisis. Read more

Our new report, led by CEF China analyst Xuyang Dong, finds that China’s massive energy-focussed State Owned Enterprises (SoEs) are shifting their huge capital expenditure (capex) in line with the central government’s renewable energy and emissions reduction targets, dramatically accelerating decarbonisation of the world’s second biggest economy. Supported by SoEs’ capital investments into renewables, China has already met its 2025 target requiring that 50% of installed capacity is renewable energy, and this target is likely to be exceeded by a significant margin. China’s domestic CO2 emissions could also fall in 2024 with its record increase in installation of zero-emissions energy sources and a recovery in hydropower, combined with enormous gains in electrification of transport and electric vehicle (EV) adoption, foreshadowing a structural plateauing of China’s emissions well before the formal target of a peak before 2030. This spells structural decline for Australian coal exports, driving home again our need to pivot our economy to value-adding critical minerals and onshoring clean manufacturing. Read more

In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced China’s national climate target to peak CO2-e emissions before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Despite coal-fired generation capacity expanding in China into 2023, deployment of zero emission generation has significantly outpaced fossil fuels. We examine the aggressive scope 1-3 decarbonisation plans of four Chinese world leaders: CATL, LONGi, JinKO Solar and Trina Solar, far ahead of Australian corporate ‘leaders’ like BHP, Wesfarmers and BlueScope Steel. Read more

We welcome and applaud the Treasurer’s focus today on 4 key industry and economic opportunities, which reflect the key priorities CEF and its partners have identified: refining and processing critical minerals; supporting manufacturing of generation and storage technologies, including batteries; producing renewable hydrogen and its derivatives like ammonia; and forging green metals including green iron. We need to see further details, but the Treasurer’s assertion that $225bn capital investment is needed by 2050 is too low by orders of magnitude, this timeframe is too late, and it reveals a too-cautious federal policy mindset that risks forgoing Australia’s opportunity to position itself as a leader in global cleantech supply chains as the world moves at breakneck speed to decarbonise. Read more

China’s renewables expansion remained strong in September, with 22.6GW of zero emissions capacity added. Hydropower continued to recover in September, reaching 139TWh, up 40.8% y-o-y. In contrast there was only a 2.8% y-o-y increase in thermal power capacity. This month saw China celebrates the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) with a pledge of $107bn over the next five years. In the meantime, China’s massive scaling-up of solar manufacturing has changed global solar dynamics triggering a rapid price deflation of solar components and taking prices to record lows. Read more

The $2bn top up for the federal Critical Minerals Facility pledged by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during his state visit to the US this week is an entirely insufficient response to the US$1 trillion industrial and energy stimulus of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA is the biggest commitment of public funding in US history – and the single biggest opportunity for Australia this generation. Here’s why. Read more

Tim Buckley’s presentation for the Investment Innovation Institute on the global energy transition: how China leads the world in the global technology and investment race, how the US IRA changes everything; Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategy and how we can embody decarbonisation in our exports; and stockmarket examples of energy transition. Read more

CEF’s Tim Buckley, Matt Pollard and Xuyang Dong present to the Asia Investor Group on Climate Change on the global decarbonisation investment race and Australia’s opportunity to position itself as a zero-emissions trade and investment powerhouse as China leads the world on energy transition and the US IRA triggers a race to the top. Read more

Tim Buckley’s presentation to Northcape, an international boutique fund manager with over $12bn under management, focusses on the acceleration of the global energy transition as capital shifts to decarbonisation worldwide, and potential investor considerations. Read more

With Sweden’s H2GS building the world’s first large-scale green steel plant and Europe’s first giga-scale electrolyser, we look at the massive opportunity for Australia – the world’s biggest producer of iron ore – to lead in the production of green iron, and the conditions that make this possible: substantial national interest public capital investment to trigger private investment at scale, and a massive decarbonisation of our grid to supply 100% green energy for processing. We must do more than dig and ship! Read more

Tim Buckley’s presentation to Ethinvest on the challenge facing Australian industry policy in light of the US IRA and the global energy transition. Read more

China’s renewable leadership offers challenges and opportunities on the path to global decarbonization. In August 2023, China’s renewable energy sector gained momentum with increased hydropower generation after months of droughts. Solar and wind power continued to dominate new capacity additions. Zero emissions capacity is now accounting for 50% of China’s total installed capacity. While China prioritizes economic development over rapid fossil fuel phase-out, EU raises concerns about China’s renewable supply chain dominance due to China’s rapid renewable manufacturing expansion. Nonetheless, this presents an opportunity for emerging markets to accelerate their energy transitions. To meet global net-zero goals, China and other developed nations must invest in emerging economies. Read more