Our work

During the first 4 months of CY2024, China added 79.7GW of zero-emissions new capacity, accounting for 90% of the net capacity additions. China added 76.9GW of wind and solar capacity from January to April, if this pace sustains or accelerates in the rest of the year, China will achieve its 1,200GW of installed wind and solar capacity by 2030 target this year, 6 years ahead of time. In March, China saw its CO2 emissions fall for the first time in the past 14 months. China’s thermal power generation increased 5.9% y-o-y during the first 4 months of CY2024, despite the massive expansion in renewable energy deployment. Biden’s 100% tariff on Chinese EVs might not be as effective as Chinese EV makers remain price-competitive even after the add-on tariffs, but Chinese EV leaders will renew their focus on other key markets like Brazil and Indonesia. The US’s 50% tariff on solar products hurts American consumers and slows down its national renewable energy development. Read more

During the first quarter of 2024 (1QCY2024), China added 69.4GW of new electricity capacity to the grid, with 91% of it being renewable energy. China is projected to exceed its 2030 target for installed solar and wind capacity six years early. The electricity generation mix shows a rising contribution from zero-emissions sources, with wind power surpassing hydropower for the first time. In the EV market, China remains the world’s largest, with nearly 1.9 million electric cars sold in 1QCY2024. Additionally, China’s solar manufacturing industry faces challenges due to overcapacity, although major players like Jinko Solar remain financially strong even as gross margins contract as solar module prices are now down 50% y-o-y. Read more

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Based on extensive modelling of China’s electricity market, CEF’S new report forecasts that thanks to China’s staggering surge in renewable energy generation, coal power generation will peak well before 2030, then plateau and decline. On the basis of China’s electricity decarbonisation progress to date, the report finds that it is entirely feasible for China to dramatically slow the rate of its new coal power plant buildout and cease the construction of new plants before 2030. This has profound significance for global decarbonisation. China is currently responsible for 96% of the world’s new coal power under construction. Read more

A full overview of our work and impacts across our program areas for the 6 months July-Dec 2023 Read more

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In 2023, China experienced a groundbreaking surge in renewable energy, installing 292.8GW of clean power, surpassing expectations. Solar capacity grew by an impressive 148%, with 216.9GW added, while wind power increased by 75.9GW. These achievements, constituting 52.4% of total installed capacity, drove China’s economic growth and decarbonising China’s job market. Challenges remain, including high reliance on thermal power, but China’s clean energy push sets a global example for sustainable development. Read more

China entered COP28 with greater climate ambition than anyone else in the room. China showcases its robust commitment to renewable energy with 82% of October’s 23.8GW capacity additions being zero emissions, primarily solar. Despite not joining the global pledge to triple renewable energy by 2030, China is on track to peak CO2 emissions soon. COP28 saw the start of the loss and damage fund, the total pledged amount to address loss and damage reached $656m, with Australia investing zero capitals. This is far from enough as the loss and damage in developing countries is already greater than $400bn per year and expected to grow. Read more

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There is consensus from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) that, in order to maintain the 1.5 degree pathway set out in the Paris Agreement, a tripling of renewables capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030 is required. According to the IEA, it is the single most important driver to keep 1.5C within reach. 90% of the renewable capacity growth would be from solar and wind, with wind capacity rising threefold from 2022 to 2030, and solar capacity fivefold. Put simply, this goal would be out of reach absent China’s massive green industrialisation of the last decade, the unprecedented acceleration of which underpins the financial viability of, and the market conditions to make possible, the global renewables revolution we need to see by 2030 if we are to avert the worsening climate crisis. Read more

Our new report, led by CEF China analyst Xuyang Dong, finds that China’s massive energy-focussed State Owned Enterprises (SoEs) are shifting their huge capital expenditure (capex) in line with the central government’s renewable energy and emissions reduction targets, dramatically accelerating decarbonisation of the world’s second biggest economy. Supported by SoEs’ capital investments into renewables, China has already met its 2025 target requiring that 50% of installed capacity is renewable energy, and this target is likely to be exceeded by a significant margin. China’s domestic CO2 emissions could also fall in 2024 with its record increase in installation of zero-emissions energy sources and a recovery in hydropower, combined with enormous gains in electrification of transport and electric vehicle (EV) adoption, foreshadowing a structural plateauing of China’s emissions well before the formal target of a peak before 2030. This spells structural decline for Australian coal exports, driving home again our need to pivot our economy to value-adding critical minerals and onshoring clean manufacturing. Read more