Our work

Our new report shows that the surge of utility scale firmed renewables in NSW, alongside CER, means there will be no electricity supply reliability gap if Australia’s biggest coal clunker – Eraring power station – is closed on-time as planned in 2025. Read more

There is consensus from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) that, in order to maintain the 1.5 degree pathway set out in the Paris Agreement, a tripling of renewables capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030 is required. According to the IEA, it is the single most important driver to keep 1.5C within reach. 90% of the renewable capacity growth would be from solar and wind, with wind capacity rising threefold from 2022 to 2030, and solar capacity fivefold. Put simply, this goal would be out of reach absent China’s massive green industrialisation of the last decade, the unprecedented acceleration of which underpins the financial viability of, and the market conditions to make possible, the global renewables revolution we need to see by 2030 if we are to avert the worsening climate crisis. Read more

Our new report, led by CEF China analyst Xuyang Dong, finds that China’s massive energy-focussed State Owned Enterprises (SoEs) are shifting their huge capital expenditure (capex) in line with the central government’s renewable energy and emissions reduction targets, dramatically accelerating decarbonisation of the world’s second biggest economy. Supported by SoEs’ capital investments into renewables, China has already met its 2025 target requiring that 50% of installed capacity is renewable energy, and this target is likely to be exceeded by a significant margin. China’s domestic CO2 emissions could also fall in 2024 with its record increase in installation of zero-emissions energy sources and a recovery in hydropower, combined with enormous gains in electrification of transport and electric vehicle (EV) adoption, foreshadowing a structural plateauing of China’s emissions well before the formal target of a peak before 2030. This spells structural decline for Australian coal exports, driving home again our need to pivot our economy to value-adding critical minerals and onshoring clean manufacturing. Read more

In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced China’s national climate target to peak CO2-e emissions before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Despite coal-fired generation capacity expanding in China into 2023, deployment of zero emission generation has significantly outpaced fossil fuels. We examine the aggressive scope 1-3 decarbonisation plans of four Chinese world leaders: CATL, LONGi, JinKO Solar and Trina Solar, far ahead of Australian corporate ‘leaders’ like BHP, Wesfarmers and BlueScope Steel. Read more

Leading clean energy and investor groups today applauded Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s expansion of the Capacity Investment Scheme to 32GW, a huge stepchange in ambition that will accelerate Australia’s clean energy transition and ensure energy affordability and reliability. See the joint statement CEF released with the Clean Energy Investor Group, representing renewable energy investors with ~11GW of installed capacity across ~70 power stations and a portfolio value of ~$24bn; the Smart Energy Council, the independent body for the Australian smart energy industry with more than 950 members, Nexa Advisory and Solar Citizens. Read more

What kind of game is AustralianSuper, the country’s biggest super fund, playing with Origin Energy? The pension behemoth, with $300bn in assets under management and over 3.26 million members, is shaping up to scuttle a bid by Canadian fund manager Brookfield, plus Singapore’s Temasek and GIC, to acquire Australia’s largest power company, gentailer Origin Energy, owner of near-death coal clunker Eraring, Australia’s biggest coal-power station slated for mothballing in 2025. Is it in the public interest for the acquisition to be blocked when doing so cruels the $20-30bn investment in 14GW of accelerated firmed renewable energy to which Brookfield has committed? Read more

We welcome and applaud the Treasurer’s focus today on 4 key industry and economic opportunities, which reflect the key priorities CEF and its partners have identified: refining and processing critical minerals; supporting manufacturing of generation and storage technologies, including batteries; producing renewable hydrogen and its derivatives like ammonia; and forging green metals including green iron. We need to see further details, but the Treasurer’s assertion that $225bn capital investment is needed by 2050 is too low by orders of magnitude, this timeframe is too late, and it reveals a too-cautious federal policy mindset that risks forgoing Australia’s opportunity to position itself as a leader in global cleantech supply chains as the world moves at breakneck speed to decarbonise. Read more

Modernising the nation’s $10tn housing stock promises to ease cost of living pressures, improve the health and comfort of homes, whilst helping to solve climate change. Australian banks are the main entry point to financing home energy performance upgrades. With a combined 46% mortgage market share, CBA and Westpac have powerful levers to help transform and decarbonise the sector. Read more

Tim Buckley’s presentation for the Investment Innovation Institute on the global energy transition: how China leads the world in the global technology and investment race, how the US IRA changes everything; Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategy and how we can embody decarbonisation in our exports; and stockmarket examples of energy transition. Read more

CEF partially supports the proposed Climate Bill, but recommend it be strengthened to better align with the climate science, the clear and growing cost of inadequate action and the once-in-a-century opportunities of rapid decarbonisation for investment, jobs and cost of living. The absence of an strong interim emissions reduction target in 2035 is a particular concern, given deep cuts must be front loaded in the next decade if we are to have hope of preventing catastrophic climate change. Read more

Tim Buckley’s presentation to Northcape, an international boutique fund manager with over $12bn under management, focusses on the acceleration of the global energy transition as capital shifts to decarbonisation worldwide, and potential investor considerations. Read more

With Sweden’s H2GS building the world’s first large-scale green steel plant and Europe’s first giga-scale electrolyser, we look at the massive opportunity for Australia – the world’s biggest producer of iron ore – to lead in the production of green iron, and the conditions that make this possible: substantial national interest public capital investment to trigger private investment at scale, and a massive decarbonisation of our grid to supply 100% green energy for processing. We must do more than dig and ship! Read more