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“The result is that China has a dramatically larger capacity to export solar modules as 2024 and 2025 unfold, and the resulting global oversupply is pushing [solar] module prices down dramatically,” said Tim Buckley, Sydney-based director of Climate Energy Finance. China’s export prices of modules have halved, and their efficiencies have improved dramatically because of investments in research and development, he said. “All of this is increasing the commercial viability of solar relative to alternative sources of electricity, both within China and in the wider Asian markets and globally,” Buckley said. Though its early days, China should be able to leverage its leadership with trade partners in Asia, Africa and South America, he added. Read more

According to a recent analysis by analyst Xuyang Dong of Climate Energy Finance, a new Australian think-tank, China is on track to exceed Beijing’s target for a 50 per cent boost in the installed capacity of renewable energy generation over the period of the state’s 14th five-year plan, from 2021 to 2025. Read more

Tim Buckley, the director of think tank Climate Energy Finance, also says China will need less Australian thermal and coking coal in the future. Buckley says China, which makes up 80 per cent of the world’s solar manufacturing capacity, has transformed the world’s capability to deliver on decarbonisation, and is driving costs down for other countries. He says solar module costs have fallen more than 40 per cent this year, making them more viable. Read more

In October, Australia’s government doubled low-interest loan funding for miners and critical mineral processors, taking the pot to $4 billion – an “entirely insufficient” figure, said Tim Buckley, a financial analyst and director at thinktank Climate Energy Finance (CEF). What the government fails to appreciate, Buckley said, is the race for green industry and supply chains is not a free market because “America has thrown a trillion bucks at the problem.” With China now a command economy, said Buckley, “our number one customer doesn’t actually believe in free markets.” Read more

Tim Buckley of Climate Energy Finance reflects on the commitment by 118 countries to treble their renewable energy and double their energy efficiency by 2030, set out at COP28 summit. He points out that while this ambitious goal is set, much hinges on which year gets used as the baseline. Tim emphasises China’s efforts in increasing their installation rates of wind and solar energy solutions. He sees this pledge as a potential turning point. Read more

China Energy Policy Analyst Xuyang Dong spoke with Michelle Chen from SBS Madarin about CEF’s recent report – Decarbonising China & the World: Chinese Energy SOEs Supercharge Renewable Investment in Response to the 14th Five Year Plan. Xuyang told SBS that after tracking the investment trends of China’s five largest energy-focused state-owned enterprises, we found that these enterprises’ huge investments in new energy sources have significantly accelerated China’s decarbonisation. The report states that China’s demand for Australian coal will be significantly reduced and calls on the government to create a national strategic investment plan to secure the future of Australia’s energy exports. Read more

Our Chinese energy SOEs report by Xuyang Dong mentioned in Australia Financial News – An Australia-based Chinese-language news outlet. Read more

Demand for Australian coal from the nation’s biggest customer is heading for long-term decline as China changes course on energy investment, research shows. According to a report released on Thursday by independent think tank Climate Energy Finance, Australia must urgently respond and pursue new partnerships with China to replace jobs. Lead author of the report, Xuyang Dong tracked the investment trends of China’s top five enterprises, which she said pointed to the possibility of the superpower exceeding its energy goals. Read more

China has vaulted ahead of the rest of the world in solar and wind power installations in 2023, accelerating the energy transition for Australia’s biggest export customer and posing a growing threat to future coal exports. “China’s demand for Australian exports of thermal and coking coal is set to decline structurally over the longer term due to the greening of China’s power sector and economy,” said Climate Energy Finance director Tim Buckley. “The report recommends that to minimise economic risk, Australia urgently comprehends and responds at speed to align with China’s massive investment pivot.” Read more

CEF’s China energy policy analyst, report lead author Xuyang Dong, tracked investment trends of China’s 5 top State Owned Enterprises, reviewing reporting disclosures and corporate data in the original Chinese. Xuyang Dong said: “China is decarbonising the world and the Chinese energy SOEs are playing a significant role in this process, as their massive capital expenditure pivot into renewables and cleantech shows. China’s ambition to lead the greening of the world is evident in its energy policies and climate goals, and reflected in energy SOEs’ capex trends, which highlight the possibility of China exceeding its energy goals. ” Read more

At the 28th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, starting on Thursday, negotiators from around the world will try to thrash out new global commitments to mitigate and adapt to climate change, one of the toughest challenges facing humanity. The world will also be looking to China to signal an intention to put a price on carbon emissions in domestic goods and imports, said Tim Buckley, director at Australia-based think tank Climate Energy Finance. “This would elevate China’s global leadership in all zero-emissions industries of the future and would signal the need for a clear international price on carbon emissions in global trade,” he said. Read more

Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, speaks to pv magazine about the current steep trajectory of solar module prices. He estimates that PV panels prices will end up dropping by 40% this year and predicts the closure of old technology and sub-scale solar manufacturing facilities, both in China and globally. Buckley also noted the likely new climate accord by Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, might see a formal call for a tripling of renewables capacity globally by 2030. “At a time of massive capital investment cost blowouts, to be able to invest in deflationary solar is a massive global boon that will provide cost of living pressure relief as well as improved energy security,” he sai Read more