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In 2023, China’s exports of the “new three” totalled 1.06 trillion yuan ($146.6 billion), up 29.9% year-on-year, official data showed. But they accounted for only 4.5% of China’s total yuan-denominated exports last year, so those on Beijing’s side of the debate see the West’s focus on them as hypocritical. Xuyang Dong, China energy policy analyst at Climate Energy Finance in Sydney, estimates China’s wafer, cell and module capacity coming online in 2024 is sufficient to meet annual global demand now through to 2032. (This is also republished on Business World) Read more

China has by far the world’s biggest wind turbine production capacity, or 60% of 163 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, says Brussels-based industry association Global Wind Energy Council. China exported about $1.42 billion of turbines and components to the EU last year. The situation in China’s wind turbine sector is similar to that in the solar sector, with massive domestic capacity increases underpinned by extensive government support, said Xuyang Dong, China energy policy analyst at Climate Energy Finance in Sydney. “With a domestic supply glut and world leading technology, China will increasingly seek to export turbines.” Read more

Consolidation in China’s crowded solar power sector is pushing smaller players out of the market, but excess production capacity – with more on the way – threatens to keep global prices low for years. “Many non-solar companies in China have been enticed by massive sustained market growth opportunities in solar and favourable policy support,” said Dong of Climate Energy Finance, who expects most plans by such players not to materialise. Read more

Xuyang Dong of Climate Energy Finance, an Australian think-tank, said that “China’s estimated wafer, cell and module capacity that will come online in 2024 is sufficient to meet annual global demand now through to 2032. This shows an immense domestic solar production oversupply, which has resulted in price slump in solar components”. Read more

Tim Buckley, the founder and director of Climate Energy Finance, says Solar Sunshot puts Australia in the global cleantech race, while also rebuilding its sovereign manufacturing capabilities and bolstering energy security and economic resilience. “Sunshot and these related initiatives are important steps in a uniquely Australian response to the US Inflation Reduction Act – the $1 trillion “green new deal” that is turbocharging cleantech re-industrialisation in the US and attracting a tidal wave of hundreds of billions of dollars of private capital,” Buckley says. Read more

Roughly $1 billion is being invested in what’s been called the Solar SunShot program — a solar manufacturing hub in New South Wales’ Hunter region, to be built on the site of the former coal-fired Liddell Power Station. Tim Buckley told ABC Radio that we need to transform the hunter valley and its workforce. Australia has abundant natural resources and capital to transform our economy and grid by using Australia-made solar panels instead of expensive imported diesel fuel from the Middle East. Read more

Longi founder Li Zhenguo is laying off thousands of staff in an industry grappling with oversupply The solar industry is cyclical, resulting in periods of boom and bust. Analysts have warned that massive job cuts across the industry are inevitable after several years of excessive focus on output rather than on sustainable profits. Xuyang Dong of Climate Energy Finance, an Australian think-tank, noted that at of the start of this year, China had more than 1,000GW of solar module production capacity in development for domestic and international markets, a far higher amount than current domestic demand. China needs around 280-320GW of new solar capacity a year until 2030 to reach its dual carbon targets. “The amount of money saved by laying off staff is insufficient compared to the 40-50 per cent decline in prices in the market over the last 12 months,” she said. Read more

On the Planet A podcast dive into the world of renewable energy and decarbonization with Tim Buckley, Director of Climate Energy Finance – an engaging discussion on the future of energy, global energy markets, and how we are becoming a multi-polar world. Read more

In an interview with SBS Chinese, Xuyang Dong, an energy analyst at the independent think tank Climate Energy Finance, explained that China’s large-scale production capabilities enable it to occupy the “most dominant” position in the global new energy supply chain. “China mass-produces cheap components and then exports cheap, high-quality solar cells.” Dong believes that the rapid development of China’s photovoltaic industry cannot be separated from strong and clear policy promotion. Although Australia cannot deploy the new energy industry through similar “hard planning”, it can also implement policies to guide industrial development. Read more

Solar pioneers are exploring ways to replace conventional silicon solar panels with lighter and more efficient solar cells printed on flexible plastic films to disprove the thesis that Australia “doesn’t do” advanced manufacturing. Energy analyst at independent think tank Climate Energy Finance, Xuyang Dong, said clear policy targets had helped led China to yield more than 80 per cent of the world’s solar manufacturing capacity. She said Australia had the opportunity to capitalise on the manufacturing of emerging solar technologies through similar “hard” policy planning. “China’s central government sets energy goals, such as its renewable energy development targets in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which compels state-owned energy enterprises to undergo transformations in line with these policies. It’s not a recommendation, it’s a compulsory command,” Dong said. Read more

As Tim Buckley and Annemarie Jonson write, the Coalition’s Luddites are at it again, doing what they do best – wrecking the joint as they try to blow up the renewables transition. Meanwhile, investment in the clean energy that will solve the climate crisis and deliver permanent energy bill relief to consumers is skyrocketing Read more

“The result is that China has a dramatically larger capacity to export solar modules as 2024 and 2025 unfold, and the resulting global oversupply is pushing [solar] module prices down dramatically,” said Tim Buckley, Sydney-based director of Climate Energy Finance. China’s export prices of modules have halved, and their efficiencies have improved dramatically because of investments in research and development, he said. “All of this is increasing the commercial viability of solar relative to alternative sources of electricity, both within China and in the wider Asian markets and globally,” Buckley said. Though its early days, China should be able to leverage its leadership with trade partners in Asia, Africa and South America, he added. Read more