The US/Israel war on Iran is the latest geopolitical disruption to trigger a domestic cost-of-living crisis. Petrol and diesel prices are soaring, and the pain is spreading through mortgage rates, grocery bills, and falling super balances as markets slumps. This is no longer just a pump-price issue; it is a systemic shock to the Australian economy, repeating the fossil fuel hyperinflationary hit we all collectively suffered with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is time for Australia to focus and value energy independence. Read more

New CEF report warns Australia’s dig-and-ship economy faces a clear and present threat as China systematically diversifies away from Australian supply across lithium, iron ore and critical minerals. Read more

New CEF report maps China’s vertically integrated green industrial strategy, and finds resource-rich nations increasingly forming win-win partnerships with Beijing. Read more

The widening conflict in the Gulf has exposed Australia’s extreme reliance on imported oil. With minimal fuel reserves and a $12 billion annual diesel subsidy to mining, energy security has become a national security emergency. The last several days have underscored the existential risk Australia runs by remaining addicted to imported fossil fuels. On 28 February, the US and Israel launched a preemptive war against Iran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. The conflict is now widening regionally, impacting energy markets worldwide. Yet the Australian government provides a $12 billion annual subsidy to keep us addicted to imported diesel, undermining our clean energy-powered Future Made In Australia, energy security and decarbonisation objectives. Read more

The idea that the state purse might receive a higher rate when prices surge is particularly sensitive for coalminers because they are in a sector that may not have many booms left. “Structural decline in one of Australia’s largest fossil fuel export commodities coupled with rising unit costs are the factors driving these investment and operating decisions, not Queensland’s nation-leading royalty scheme,” says Matt Pollard, an analyst at clean energy consultancy Climate Energy Finance. Read more

CEF’s new report finds that Australia’s largest taxpayer-funded fossil fuel subsidy – the diesel Fuel Tax Credit (FTC) Scheme – is entrenching dependence on imported high-emissions diesel to power mining operations, undermining climate targets, damaging productivity and draining tens of billions from the federal budget. Read more

As Energy Minister Bowen flags a carbon tariff on some imports, Australia well placed to lead development of a path towards a regional Asian Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Read more

Australia is well placed to lead development of a path towards a regional Asian Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism involving China, Australia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea, as it bids to host COP31. China, as the world leader in decarbonisation and in steel, aluminum and cement, is key. Read more

Under the plan, METI will evaluate submissions by automakers on their low-emission steel procurement and allocate subsidies based on the percentage of green steel being used, according to Matt Pollard, an analyst at clean energy consultancy Climate Energy Finance. “In the broader context, it is important for METI to publicly release the carbon accounting methodologies, green product definitions and emission thresholds it will use to determine products and producers that will benefit from the models approved under the new subsidy scheme,” Pollard said. Put simply, how all this works is likely to determine whether it is actually successful. Read more

While Xi’s Communist Party won’t be rushed as it transitions China’s electricity network, it sees a huge opportunity in the global shift. “China wants to dominate the industries of the future,” says Tim Buckley, the Sydney-based head of Climate Energy Finance, a clean energy think tank. In sector after sector from wind farms to solar panels to battery storage to the rollout of new fourth-generation nuclear power technology, China now leads the world. “I have been watching China for 15 years and they’ve exceeded every expectation I had in terms of their investment and the longevity of their strategic thinking,” says Buckley, who used to be the head of research at Citigroup’s Australian hub. Read more

Tim Buckley, founder and director of Climate Energy Finance, said Australia had clearly seen significant uncertainty in the development of offshore wind, where the Coalition’s overt opposition had undermined momentum. But he said the economics of offshore wind had also taken a hit in recent years, which had been a global trend. Buckley has not seen evidence that investors are pulling out of the development of onshore renewables and batteries as a result of the Coalition’s nuclear policy. A report released by his firm this week found that investment activity over the past six months put Australia on track to deliver on the Government’s 2030 target of 82% renewables share in the energy grid. Read more

The rise of solar in the subcontinent has been all about government subsidies and massive arrays out in the desert. “India sees the opportunity to build energy security, grid diversity and reduce their massive over-reliance on imported fossil fuels,” says Tim Buckley, the director of Climate Energy Finance. It’s a familiar dynamic: fossil fuels falling into structural decline as massive new solar farms come online. And while solar continues its march towards super-cheap, super-abundant energy generation during the day, it’s over to another technology to continue the clean-energy transition into the night. “Solar was the disruption of last decade,” says Tim Buckley. “Batteries will be the disruption of this coming decade.” Read more