Our work

Our new report, led by CEF China analyst Xuyang Dong, finds that China’s massive energy-focussed State Owned Enterprises (SoEs) are shifting their huge capital expenditure (capex) in line with the central government’s renewable energy and emissions reduction targets, dramatically accelerating decarbonisation of the world’s second biggest economy. Supported by SoEs’ capital investments into renewables, China has already met its 2025 target requiring that 50% of installed capacity is renewable energy, and this target is likely to be exceeded by a significant margin. China’s domestic CO2 emissions could also fall in 2024 with its record increase in installation of zero-emissions energy sources and a recovery in hydropower, combined with enormous gains in electrification of transport and electric vehicle (EV) adoption, foreshadowing a structural plateauing of China’s emissions well before the formal target of a peak before 2030. This spells structural decline for Australian coal exports, driving home again our need to pivot our economy to value-adding critical minerals and onshoring clean manufacturing. Read more

View Tim Buckley’s presentation on Renewable Energy-based Exports to Australian National University Energy Update seminar in November 2023: Overview of global energy transition, the gigantic lead of China, the impact of the US IRA and more. Read more

ANZ began reporting under its massive $100bn target to 2030 moving $8,8bn in 2H23, $0.74bn was on-balance sheet lending towards climate solutions (i.e. 8% of the total funded and facilitated). ANZ’s ratio of RE to fossil fuel energy is 0.15: 1 (i.e. $15 in renewables for every $100 in fossils) which needs to accelerate to a minimum 1: 4 by 2030 to meet global climate goals. While governance around energy transactions is improving, ANZ needs to commit to no new funding or facilitation of capital that enables fossil fuel expansion. This commitment must extend to finance for customers who expect to rely on CCS as an emissions reduction strategy where the IEA this month found CCS to be completely “inconceivable” and unviable. Read more

In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced China’s national climate target to peak CO2-e emissions before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Despite coal-fired generation capacity expanding in China into 2023, deployment of zero emission generation has significantly outpaced fossil fuels. We examine the aggressive scope 1-3 decarbonisation plans of four Chinese world leaders: CATL, LONGi, JinKO Solar and Trina Solar, far ahead of Australian corporate ‘leaders’ like BHP, Wesfarmers and BlueScope Steel. Read more

Leading clean energy and investor groups today applauded Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s expansion of the Capacity Investment Scheme to 32GW, a huge stepchange in ambition that will accelerate Australia’s clean energy transition and ensure energy affordability and reliability. See the joint statement CEF released with the Clean Energy Investor Group, representing renewable energy investors with ~11GW of installed capacity across ~70 power stations and a portfolio value of ~$24bn; the Smart Energy Council, the independent body for the Australian smart energy industry with more than 950 members, Nexa Advisory and Solar Citizens. Read more

NAB’s exposure to renewables is higher than its on-book fossil fuel financing for the first time but the full scope of its fossil value chain exposures and facilitative financing is not disclosed. This is inconsistent with NAB’s green financing disclosure and we call on NAB for greater transparency in fossil fuel financing. NAB supported the Australian Industry Energy Transitions Initiative (ETI) which models a 36% reduction in Australian LNG exports to 2030 and 75% reduction to 2040 against a 2020 baseline guided by the IEA NZE scenario. However, NAB’s oil and gas (O&G) financing policy does not stack up to this ambition, with major gaps in corporate finance, bonds, and facilitative finance. Read more

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What kind of game is AustralianSuper, the country’s biggest super fund, playing with Origin Energy? The pension behemoth, with $300bn in assets under management and over 3.26 million members, is shaping up to scuttle a bid by Canadian fund manager Brookfield, plus Singapore’s Temasek and GIC, to acquire Australia’s largest power company, gentailer Origin Energy, owner of near-death coal clunker Eraring, Australia’s biggest coal-power station slated for mothballing in 2025. Is it in the public interest for the acquisition to be blocked when doing so cruels the $20-30bn investment in 14GW of accelerated firmed renewable energy to which Brookfield has committed? Read more

Founder of the Climate Capital Forum and one of The Australian’s Top 100 Green Energy Players Blair Palese says we need a new playbook for the decarbonising ballgame. A massive national strategic capital public investment program that establishes Australia as a zero-emissions trade and investment leader is required. Read more

Energy lending trends in the right direction with renewables lending increasing 28% yoy as fossil energy exposures decreased 7% yoy. However, a significant accelerated pivot is required to lift from the current 0.7 to 1 energy supply investment ratio of clean energy to fossil fuels, and reach BNEF’s benchmark of 4:1 by 2030. While thermal coal exit commitments are on track, oil and gas (O&G) policy updates still do not restrict corporate finance and deal facilitation to companies or projects expanding supply beyond a 1.5 degree pathway. Read more

Tim Buckley’s presentation to the ANU’s Rare Earth Conference Read more

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