The war had reinforced the need for energy independence and could drive strong growth in electrification and decarbonisation this year, said Tim Buckley, director of the Climate Energy Finance think tank in Sydney. “I would expect a surge in China’s battery and electric vehicle exports,” he added
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“Australia is [not] producing anywhere near enough of our own oil or diesel to actually sustain our economy. So I find it absolutely hypocritical … that the party of ‘small government’ is advocating for massive ongoing taxpayer subsidies to invest in new white elephants that would take at least a decade to be built,” Buckley says.
“They do nothing for Australian energy security in the next decade, at a time when [electric vehicle] technology and battery technology is probably the most profound disruption globally in 2026 and we could be replacing $50 billion a year of annual diesel and oil imports with home grown, clean, low cost, deflationary Australian energy.”
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Investor Front Door was launched in September last year, aiming to streamline the approvals process and fast-track projects of national significance. Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance (CEF), told Carbon Pulse he was supportive of the initiative and hoped that it became permanent, noting “it’s taking a long time to get from announcement to substance”. “We’ve got to move at double the speed” to decarbonise, he said.
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Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, says Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to Singapore aims to strengthen face-to-face ties and ensure energy security through cooperation with Asian partners. Australia, a major LNG exporter, relies on Singapore for refined fuels, while partners depend on Australian gas. Amid global disruption and high fossil fuel prices, collaboration is vital to reduce supply chain risks. Buckley stresses the importance of commitments from Japan and South Korea, and warns of Australia’s heavy reliance on imported fuel. Long term, he urges electrification and reducing diesel subsidies to cut dependence on imports.
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Buckley and others note that the technology has been around for a while, but is rarely used. Adolf Hitler adopted it in WWII because he had no other way to provide fuel for his warplanes, and cost and emissions were not top of mind.
The apartheid government in South Africa developed it, too, in the 1970s, again for lack of other options, but it has proved to be an economic and environmental nightmare. It has not built a new plant for more than 40 years.
The US looked at the technology after the 1970s fossil fuel crisis, but decided it was too expensive and too dirty to deploy at scale, although it toyed with the idea for military bases, where costs and emissions are not priorities.
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China now installs more wind turbines, solar panels and batteries than the rest of the world combined. It is the world’s largest producer of batteries and electric vehicles. It holds 95 per cent of global rare earth refining capacity, 90 per cent of battery anode production, and dominates virtually every other component of the clean energy supply chain. In December 2025 alone, 54 per cent of all truck sales in China were battery electric. This is long-term strategic planning and green energy statecraft paying dividends.
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According to Climate Energy Finance founder and director Tim Buckley, schools could save between $20,000 and $30,000 each year on their electricity bills if they install 100-kilowatt-plus solar systems – and that’s before batteries or EV chargers.
Buckley is a former Director of Energy Finance Studies at the nonprofit Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
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Fuel prices are expected to fall further at the bowser after state premiers agreed to return GST on fuel, potentially cutting costs by around six cents per litre. However, Tim Buckley from Climate Energy Finance warns that cheaper fuel could increase demand at a time when global supply is already constrained due to Middle East tensions. He argues the focus should be on reducing consumption through measures like public transport, remote work, and reduced air travel. With ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and disrupted oil and gas flows, Buckley says supply constraints may persist for months or years, making demand reduction and electrification increasingly important.
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Climate Energy Finance founder and director Tim Buckley said installing solar at all schools was a “massive opportunity” towards decarbonising the grid as installations would only take as long as two weeks.
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“Three years ago, Australia had more than 50% of the world’s lithium production, but not anymore,” Climate Energy Finance (CEF) director and former Citigroup managing director Tim Buckley told Paydirt. “This globally dominant position has been eroded significantly. By the start of 2026, domestic mines in China produce more than Australia and I tracked 15 other countries where China has invested in spodumene mines.” The CEF report found China’s investment in clean energy technology and its associated value chain has been pronounced, spending more than $US120 billion on upstream mining and processing projects since 2023 and more than $US220 billion on midstream and downstream cleantech manufacturing and renewables infrastructure in the same period. In the same period,
Chinese investment into Australia has collapsed by 85%.
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Australia’s AU$50 billion (US$34 billion) annual dependence on imported oil and diesel has become a critical vulnerability that could paradoxically accelerate the nation’s battery storage and renewable energy transformation, according to Tim Buckley, founder and director of Climate Energy Finance.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Energy Storage Summit Australia 2026 in Sydney, Buckley warns that recent geopolitical developments, including China’s announcement that it would halt refined oil product exports and escalating US-Iran tensions, have exposed the fragility of Australia’s energy security and created an urgent case for domestic investment in clean energy infrastructure.
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There is no such lack of cleantech ambition by the mining magnates’ large customers in China, however. As energy analyst Tim Buckley puts it, the “carnage unleashed by the US-Iran conflict has exposed the fragility – and concentration – of global fossil fuel supply chains”.
“ … China is sticking to its script; staying clear of the fray and branding itself as the steady alternative to an unpredictable America. In doing so,
it is weaponising its cleantech supremacy as the ultimate tool of green soft power.
China has spent years pursuing its ‘self-sufficiency’ drive and electrifying its economy, says Buckley. It has spent more than $US220B building cleantech manufacturing, grids and energy infrastructure overseas since 2023, “and another $US120B securing critical minerals, strategic metals and upstream processing”.
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