Highlights – ACCELERATING RENEWABLES DRIVES NEM ELECTRICITY PRICE DEFLATION Amazing to see electricity price DEFLATION being delivered in Australia in the middle of the latest fossil fuel war, with its resulting hyperinflation of global fossil fuel prices. The Australian Energy Regulator has released its final Default Market Offer (DMO) starting 1 July 2026. Residential flat rate standing offer prices will fall by between 3-5% in NSW and by 7.2% in South East Queensland compared to last year, while South Australian households will have a modest increase of 1.4%. Small businesses will see reductions across all three regions, with prices decreasing by 7-12% in South Australia, 10-14% in South East Queensland, and 9.0-21% in NSW. Earlier this week the Essential Services Commission delivered a further reduction in the Victorian Default Offer; FY2026–27 will be on average 5% lower than last year for households. For small businesses the price is down on average 6%. A major contributing factor is the record high investments into clean energy by Australia’s public – with over 400k home battery installs totalling >11GWh achieved in just 11 months, supporting the 3GW pa of rooftop solar installs. Read more

One of Australia’s biggest government programs is a diesel tax rebate that now costs taxpayers A$10.8bn a year, more than is spent on the army or navy. BHP alone received A$627m from the rebate in 2024, according to a study by Climate Energy Finance, a pro-transition group. Removing the tax break would improve the returns from electrification by about 50%, according to Fortescue. Read more

The campaign to cap the rebate for the big miners at $50 million is gathering broad support among the crossbench, ALP branches and the unions, as well as environmental groups. There is also pressure on Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen to tighten up the use of offsets by the big miners in the upcoming review of the Safeguard Mechanism. If Fortescue can rapidly bring down its emissions in the Pilbara, BHP will have less justification for relying on offsets. Read more

Clean Energy Finance has estimated that BHP received about $627 million in fuel tax credits in the 2024 financial year, Rio Tinto $416 million, Fortescue $309 million and Hancock Prospecting $128 million, which is paid as compensation for the taxes paid on diesel used on private roads. 4 Corners reported on Monday that leaked BHP documents showed the mining giant expected to cut emissions by just 1 per cent by 2030, and an internal memo warned its decarbonisation delays could pose a risk if there were “changes in diesel prices”, such as if the tax credit were “revoked”. Read more

China’s biggest steel maker, Baowu Steel Group, has set a goal of reducing its emissions by 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2035 and reaching net zero by 2050. Tim Buckley from think tank Climate Energy Finance said Australia had an important role to play in helping China decarbonise its steel industry. “Decarbonising the Chinese steel industry is the single biggest decarbonisation opportunity in the world,” he said. Read more

Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, says the reduction in retail electricity prices coming at the same time as renewable energy penetration on the NEM reaches record high shares is “no coincidence.” “Amazing to see electricity price deflation being delivered in Australia in the middle of the latest fossil fuel war, with its resulting hyperinflation of global fossil fuel prices,” Buckley said on LinkedIn. Read more

A 7News segment examined BHP’s emissions reduction progress and questions around whether the company is on track to meet its climate commitments. BHP highlighted advances in electric mining equipment, while concerns were raised about projected emissions increases in the near term. The report also explored Western Australia’s energy transition, including the pace of renewable energy development, the state’s pathway to net zero emissions, and the need for greater investment in electrification and clean energy infrastructure. Read more

In May 2025, the company reported that “solutions are still being sought to achieve net zero”, although it has delayed its renewables rollout along with its adoption of electric trucks and trains. Tim Buckley of Climate Energy Finance has commented that BHP is not on track for its net zero 2050 goals and that its “ actions are not aligned with the science”. Read more

A major expose on ABC Four Corners last night, in collaboration with The Guardian, revealed for the first time irrefutable evidence of BHP reversing its commitments to meaningfully cut emissions in a credible timeframe at its world-dominant Pilbara iron ore business. The egregious walk-back, as the climate crisis escalates, was laid out in hundreds of pages of leaked internal company records. We’ve been saying it for years – BHP’s record of (in)action on clean energy and climate is pathetic and an indictment of its board and CEO leadership. And there it was in black and white. Read more

But, as Tim Buckley from Climate and Energy Finance explains, it is not what it seems. The Mandala report, for instance, fails to explain that Fortescue’s emissions are the result of the opening of a massive new mine and vastly increased production. It still has a target of cutting its emissions at these mines by 100 per cent in four years. The BHP calculation, however, includes the impacts of M&A activity, and the massive decarbonisation of its Chile mine in 2022 by renewable energy. Why is it BHP can do it way way back in 2022 in Chile but not in the decade to 2030 in the Pilbara?!” Buckley wrote on LinkedIn. “Hint – $620m pa is why!” Read more

What you can tell from these documents is that every time BHP was there ready to spend the money on the decarb program, it would baulk and the program would get delayed. Tim Buckley is a former stock market analyst who now runs thinktank, Climate Energy Finance. He lobbies government and industry for a faster transition to net zero. “We need to invest huge amounts of money in the Pilbara to transform it. That requires a whole lot of new re-skilling. It requires a whole lot of investment, and at the moment, BHP’s doing none of that.” Read more

BHP is fundamentally putting Australia’s emissions targets at risk,” said Tim Buckley of the thinktank Climate Energy Finance. “It’s the single biggest company in Australia, and its annual report shows its emissions going up between fiscal year 2025 and fiscal year 2030. It isn’t showing leadership and it is refusing to act on its own policy.” Read more