As Yellen laid out plans to formalise dialogue with China over excess industrial capacity in electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels and batteries, saying Washington would not accept U.S. industry being “decimated”, the Chinese finance ministry issued a statement saying it had already “fully responded” to her concerns. One industry where global demand does not keep up with Chinese production, though, is solar. Xuyang Dong, China energy policy analyst at Climate Energy Finance in Sydney, estimates China’s wafer, cell and module capacity coming online in 2024 is sufficient to meet annual global demand now through to 2032. Read more

In 2023, China’s exports of the “new three” totalled 1.06 trillion yuan ($146.6 billion), up 29.9% year-on-year, official data showed. But they accounted for only 4.5% of China’s total yuan-denominated exports last year, so those on Beijing’s side of the debate see the West’s focus on them as hypocritical. Xuyang Dong, China energy policy analyst at Climate Energy Finance in Sydney, estimates China’s wafer, cell and module capacity coming online in 2024 is sufficient to meet annual global demand now through to 2032. (This is also republished on Business World) Read more

In a speech to Queensland’s Media Club, Albanese laid out the foundations of federal Labor’s plan to use taxpayer-funded incentives to advance the manufacturing and clean energy industries, including hydrogen, green metals, solar power and emerging renewables. “Albanese’s speech announcing the Act is ambitious and visionary,” said Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance and a former MD of Citigroup. “It has the makings of the foundation for our future as a zero-emissions trade and investment leader and global clean energy superpower, as we inevitably pivot from our historic dependence on carbon exports. Buckley says Albanese’s vision is to build on Australia’s existing strengths – and critically, also look beyond them – a point many “old-school economists” have so far failed to grasp. “Relying on traditional competitive advantage logic misses that the transition to net zero is a $US4-6 trillion annual investment opportunity globally for the next couple of decades… and one in which every major economy has invested massive national interest public capital,” Buckley said on Thursday. Read more

IN Australian Resources and Investment Magazine, Tim Buckley recommends producers look for strategic partners who want to secure long-term, reliable supply, possibly supported by an equity share. “This can be globally – say, Korea, Japan, India and the US, supported domestically by leveraging the growing interest of government-owned finance entities like the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), the Northern Australian Infrastructure Facility (NAIF), Export Finance Australia (EFA), and the National Reconstruction Fund (NRF),” he said. Read more

Tim Buckley, director of Energy Finance Studies of the US-based think tank Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said, “Adani Power is the largest producer of renewable energy in India, which is now the cheapest among all other power generating sources of the country. They even acknowledged that solar energy price will drop by 99 percent in the next four decades.” “If Bangladesh really needs electricity from Adani, it should ask for cheap renewable energy. Otherwise, people in Bangladesh have to pay a much higher price for electricity from Adani Godda coal-fired power plant,” he added. Read more

Consolidation in China’s crowded solar power sector is pushing smaller players out of the market, but excess production capacity – with more on the way – threatens to keep global prices low for years. “Many non-solar companies in China have been enticed by massive sustained market growth opportunities in solar and favourable policy support,” said Dong of Climate Energy Finance, who expects most plans by such players not to materialise. Read more

Xuyang Dong of Climate Energy Finance, an Australian think-tank, said that “China’s estimated wafer, cell and module capacity that will come online in 2024 is sufficient to meet annual global demand now through to 2032. This shows an immense domestic solar production oversupply, which has resulted in price slump in solar components”. Read more

Roughly $1 billion is being invested in what’s been called the Solar SunShot program — a solar manufacturing hub in New South Wales’ Hunter region, to be built on the site of the former coal-fired Liddell Power Station. Tim Buckley told ABC Radio that we need to transform the hunter valley and its workforce. Australia has abundant natural resources and capital to transform our economy and grid by using Australia-made solar panels instead of expensive imported diesel fuel from the Middle East. Read more

Longi founder Li Zhenguo is laying off thousands of staff in an industry grappling with oversupply The solar industry is cyclical, resulting in periods of boom and bust. Analysts have warned that massive job cuts across the industry are inevitable after several years of excessive focus on output rather than on sustainable profits. Xuyang Dong of Climate Energy Finance, an Australian think-tank, noted that at of the start of this year, China had more than 1,000GW of solar module production capacity in development for domestic and international markets, a far higher amount than current domestic demand. China needs around 280-320GW of new solar capacity a year until 2030 to reach its dual carbon targets. “The amount of money saved by laying off staff is insufficient compared to the 40-50 per cent decline in prices in the market over the last 12 months,” she said. Read more

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has issued what is becoming a routine annual warning of potential future gas supply shortages in Australia, with the release this week of its latest Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO). Tim Buckley, the founder and director of Climate Energy Finance said “Why does AEMO have gas use in the power system actually higher in 2040 than they do today? “That’s the gas industry giving the most optimistic view that they can about the future of their industry, and it’s just not going to happen. “AEMO is still failing to understand the massive structural shift of scale and scope for batteries – including of utility scale, behind the meter and in electric vehicles for V2G, plus grid orchestration – to permanently diminish the need for gas peakers, which play a small, critical but diminishing role in grid firming, particularly in season peaks in winter. “We have AEMO doing a gas statement of opportunity that ignores the obvious opportunity, which is to electrify everything and reduce demand.” Read more

A Gina Rinehart-backed mining company has soared in value by 75%, after the government agreed to provide financial support as it aims to increase Australia’s production of rare earth elements. The director of Climate Energy Finance, Tim Buckley, says the announcement shows private finance can’t be relied on to provide critical minerals. “We probably shouldn’t be relying on private billionaires to do the national interest,” he says. Buckley says competition from Chinese and US production after president Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act could crush Australian production without government action. “The idea that we’re just going to leave it to the free market is farcical when the American government started with a trillion dollars in subsidies on the table,” he says. Read more

The sudden enthusiasm of the LNP for nuclear energy is another divisive, cynical and damaging ploy to ignite Climate Wars 2.0 and disrupt and delay Australia’s accelerating renewables transition on behalf of the fossil fuel cartel. The LNP’s climate and energy luddites burned a decade when they were in office. We can’t afford more of the same policy lunacy. Read more