Independent think tank Climate Energy Finance issues the warning in a report tracking policy and projects in the sector, including 11 green iron and steel proposals in Australia.
No commercial plant has reached a final investment decision, the group warns, and Australia could lose out if progress stalls for another two years.
The warning comes as the federal government considers applications to its $500 million Green Iron Investment Fund for early projects, and after a Superpower Institute study found green iron exports could generate $386 billion annually by 2060.
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Climate Energy Finance’s new report, Green Metal Statecraft: Policy, Investment and Technology Trends in the Green Iron Evolution, provides an update of the global and domestic investment, technology and enabling policy trends that will underpin the transformation of the iron and steel value chain in 2026.
This report highlights that for every step forward on an individual project or market-level, the broader investment pipeline has just as many case studies of project delay, cancellation, and restructure in the face of unresolved structural headwinds.
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A new report by independent think tank Climate Energy Finance tracking policy, investment and technology trends in the global green iron and steel industry finds decarbonisation and electrification of the industry is undergoing structural recalibration, from speculative optimism and green hydrogen hype to incremental, halting and sporadic progress at a pace misaligned with the climate science. Steel production accounts for 7-9% of global emissions.
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A new report by independent think tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF) tracking policy, investment and technology progress in the global green iron and steel industry warns that Australia’s opportunity to leverage its comparative advantages to lead in low-emissions iron and steel production is narrowing rapidly, and increasingly time limited.
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In recent years, Chinese companies have come to dominate the market for wind energy equipment thanks to rapid domestic deployment of powerful low-cost turbines.
But their overseas investment plans have run into steeper hurdles than companies in other clean energy sectors, such as electric vehicles and solar power, said Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, a think tank. Regulators are partly concerned about connecting Chinese-made wind turbines, which are more technologically sophisticated than other clean tech products such as solar modules, to national power grids, he said. But geopolitical concerns and the desire to protect domestic industries have also played a part.
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The foreign minister is travelling to Japan, China and Korea – to try and ensure Australia is prioritised by fuel supplier’s. The three countries provide a mix of diesel, petrol and jet fuel to Australia. Petrol prices have come down from the initial highs triggered by the closure of the strait of Hormuz. Tim Buckley the director of ‘climate energy finance’, says the dip stems from cautious energy companies.
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In FY24, the top 15 diesel users burned nearly 6 billion litres and received $2.9 billion in tax credits, as Renew Economy reported last week. This year, the total bill for the FTC is $11 billion and that will rise over time, as the 51.6c/litre rebate is linked to inflation and as the mining sector grows.
Climate Energy Finance analyst Matt Pollard expects it to hit $13 billion in 2030.
Pollard instead recommended an alternative transition idea – the big miners can still get their credits over $50 million, provided they make equal or greater investments in decarbonisation.
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Beyond the BHP deal, Tim Buckley, director at Climate Energy Finance, noted that Fortescue Metals – another major Australian mining firm – had already agreed last year to expand its yuan-denominated trade with China. In return, the Australian miner was rewarded with a five-year, 14-billion-yuan (US$2 billion) syndicated loan led by the Bank of China at a highly favourable 3.8 per cent annual interest rate. “China is … leveraging the US’ geopolitical isolation under [US President Donald] Trump as a way of building momentum away from the world’s historic reliance on the US dollar as the functional and reserve currency,” Buckley said.
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Climate Energy Finance founder Tim Buckley picks apart China’s growing global dominance in battery supply chains and asks how Australia can chart a path forward on the global stage
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Iron ore mining giant and green energy advocate Fortescue has launched a major public campaign urging government to strip big miners of fossil fuel handouts, saying diesel tax rebates are no longer going to the right people.
Fortescue, which is aiming to reach “real zero” emissions at its mines by 2030, if not earlier, by using renewables and electric transport and mining equipment, says research shows the 18 largest miners receive about a third of the $11 billion in fuel rebates returned to businesses this year.
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In a bid to bridge this gap, Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has turned to “fuel diplomacy”, said Dia, with recent visits to Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei, where he has been trying to shore up the supply of fuel and fertiliser.
As a major exporter of LNG and coal, Australia has some leverage in these negotiations, said Tim Buckley, director of think tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF).
But, he added, it is notable that Australia’s position is very different to that of its historic ally, the US, which is not as dependent on oil exported through the Strait of Hormuz.
“We don’t get any of our oil from the US,” Buckley told Al Jazeera.
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New analysis by independent think tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF) reveals Australia’s 18 major diesel consumers pocketed Fuel Tax Credit (FTC) refunds of $3.36bn in FY2025, as ordinary Australians now face a cost-of-living crisis driven by surging oil prices. The beneficiaries of the FTC Scheme are overwhelming big multinational miners extracting huge profits from our finite sovereign assets.
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